River vs Flamengo: Copa Libertadores. 50 simulations run.
Who won more and who was the top scorer of the simulations?
Our colleagues, the people behind scouting da liga Argentina, no Football Manager, simulated the Copa Libertadores final between Flamengo and River Plate 50 times.
The whole scenario was as real as possible:
-Tactical setups;
-Tactical dynamics;
-Available players;
At the end of all the simulations, a very slight edge for Mengão, with 26 wins against 24 for the Argentines, numbers that show how evenly matched the two best teams on the South American continent are.
The strong point of Millonarioswas possession (51.9% on average) and shots from outside the box that ended up in the back of the net.
Although Jorge Jesus' side fired 100 more shots at Franco Armani's goal, they only scored 14 more goals than today's final opponents.
Nicolás De la Cruz (10 goals), Ignacio Fernández (9) and our old friend Enzo Pérez (7) were River's scorers. Flamengo, for their part, were superior at set pieces (17 goals against River's 10) and especially in creating clear chances (104 against 32).
As a result of that superiority, "Gabigol", with 26 goals, was the top scorer of the simulations.
Curiosidades:
- Flamengo opened the scoring more often, and River had to chase the game.
- River only opened the scoring in the second halves of the simulations.
- The most common results were 2-1 and 1-0. Both happened seven times, in favour of the Cariocas.
- Five times the game ended 1-1 and was decided on penalties.
- River's most common win was 2-0, with the second goal coming on the counter against a Flamengo side pushing everyone forward in search of an equaliser.
- Some simulations ended with "strange" results. Two 4-0s (one for each team), a 4-3 for River, a 4-4 draw, and also a 5-2 for Flamengo.
- Arrascaeta, built on his passing and vision (the best assist provider, with 16 assists), was the most decisive player in the simulations, with 8 man of the match awards, followed by Filipe Luís, beaten by his opponents only 29 times in 50 games, with 6; the last place on the podium went to Enzo Pérez, with 5.
- At the other end, Flamengo's Everton Ribeiro was the worst player on the pitch seven times, followed by Matías Suárez with 6 and Milton Casco with 5.
- Exequiel Palacios (River) stood out for his passing, with a 90.8% completion rate, the best in this respect in 19 of the simulations.
- Gonzalo Montiel committed the most fouls, 4.4 on average.
- Still on discipline, the Argentines showed they have short fuses. Lucas Martínez Quarta and Milton Casco were each sent off three times, followed by Montiel and De La Cruz, with two red cards.
- For Mengão, Filipe Luís was sent off twice, while Rodrigo Caio and Bruno Henrique were sent off once each.
Here is the simulation file to download!
