River or Flamengo? FM simulated the Libertadores final 50 times

Before the 2019 Copa Libertadores final, those in charge of scouting the Argentine league in Football Manager decided to ask the question everyone was asking: who wins, River Plate or Flamengo?

To answer it, they simulated the final 50 times, with everything as close to reality as possible:

each coach’s tactical setup;
the playing dynamics;
the available players.

Index

Almost a dead heat

After the 50 simulations, a minimal edge for Mengão: 26 wins to the Argentines’ 24. Numbers that show how evenly matched the two best teams in South America were at the time.

River were stronger in possession (51.9% on average) and in long-range shots that ended up in the net.

Jorge Jesus’s side had 100 more shots on Franco Armani’s goal, but that only translated into 14 more goals than their rivals.

For River, the goals came from Nicolás De la Cruz (10), Ignacio Fernández (9) and our old friend Enzo Pérez (7). Flamengo were better at set pieces (17 goals to 10) and, above all, at creating clear-cut chances (104 to 32).

Result: Gabigol scored 26 goals and was the top scorer of these simulations.

The trivia

Flamengo opened the scoring most often, forcing River to chase the game.
River only scored first in second halves.
The most common scores were 2-1 and 1-0, seven times each, always in favor of the Rio side.
There were five 1-1 draws, decided on penalties.
River’s most common win was 2-0, with the second goal coming on the counter against a Flamengo side pushing for an equalizer.
There were also some “strange” results: two 4-0s (one each way), a 4-3 for River, a 4-4 and a 5-2 for Flamengo.
Arrascaeta was the most decisive player, with 8 man of the match awards and 16 assists. Next came Filipe Luís, with 6 (he was beaten only 29 times in 50 games), and Enzo Pérez, with 5.

At the other end, Everton Ribeiro was the worst player on the pitch seven times, followed by Matías Suárez (6) and Milton Casco (5).
Exequiel Palacios stood out in passing: 90.8% accuracy and the best in this department in 19 simulations.

Gonzalo Montiel committed the most fouls, with 4.4 per game.
The Argentines were quick to boil over: Lucas Martínez Quarta and Milton Casco were sent off three times each, and Montiel and De la Cruz twice.
For Mengão, Filipe Luís saw red twice, and Rodrigo Caio and Bruno Henrique once each.