{"id":846,"date":"2018-09-11T22:10:42","date_gmt":"2018-09-11T22:10:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fmportugal.net\/?p=846"},"modified":"2026-10-16T09:07:05","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T09:07:05","slug":"usar-o-fm-para-apostar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fmportugal.net\/en\/usar-o-fm-para-apostar\/","title":{"rendered":"Using FM to bet? Someone made a 9.32% profit at the World Cup"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Who said Football Manager cannot be more than a game? Some people use its simulations to bet.<\/p>\n<p>The creator of the Golden FM YouTube channel used the editor to recreate the groups of the 2018 World Cup in Russia and made the file available to everyone.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_89 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Index<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseprofile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/fmportugal.net\/en\/usar-o-fm-para-apostar\/#Mil_simulacoes_e_a_realidade_confirmou\" >A thousand simulations, and reality confirmed it<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/fmportugal.net\/en\/usar-o-fm-para-apostar\/#De_brincadeira_a_negocio\" >From fun to business<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Mil_simulacoes_e_a_realidade_confirmou\"><\/span>A thousand simulations, and reality confirmed it<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>After simulating the tournament 100 times, he asked his 45,000 followers to do the same and share the results. After a thousand simulations, France were by far the team that won most often, England finished fourth and Harry Kane was top scorer. All of this ended up happening in real life.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-845 size-full aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/fmportugal.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/france-fifa-2018-winners-getty.jpg\" alt=\"Festejos da Fran\u00e7a - Usar o FM para apostar\" width=\"675\" height=\"379\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"De_brincadeira_a_negocio\"><\/span>From fun to business<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The idea started as a way to interact with the channel\u2019s fans, but some took it in the direction of money.<\/p>\n<p>Dave Matteo, an applied statistics student at Swinburne University of Technology in Melbourne, was one of them. After 40 hours and 200 World Cup simulations, he bet $5 on each team the game predicted would win its group. Result: he finished with a 9.32% profit. And he thinks that, with better filtering of the results, the margin could have been bigger.<\/p>\n<p>In his simulations too, France were champions and Kane won the Golden Boot, with goals that included the game against Panama, just as happened in reality.<\/p>\n<p>Even so, Matteo admits the process is too time-consuming to guarantee consistent profits. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.footballmanagerblog.org\/2018\/07\/football-manager-and-betting.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Roy Rovers<\/a> is much more confident: for him, no betting software simulates a game or a competition as well as Football Manager, thanks to the number of factors the match engine takes into account.<\/p>\n<p>Would you trust FM to place a bet?<\/p>\n<div class=\"fmpt-le-tambem\" style=\"border-left:4px solid #1e88e5;padding:12px 16px;margin:24px 0;background:rgba(30,136,229,.06)\">\n<p style=\"margin:0 0 6px\"><strong>Read also<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul style=\"margin:0\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/fmportugal.net\/en\/cork-city-aposta-football-manager-3-1\/\">FM predicted 3-1, he bet 5 euros and got Cork City\u2019s score right<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/fmportugal.net\/en\/river-vs-flamengo-a-simulacao\/\">River or Flamengo? FM simulated the Libertadores final 50 times<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><em>Fonte: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.footballmanagerblog.org\/2018\/07\/football-manager-and-betting.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Football Manager Blog<\/a><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Um youtuber recriou o Mundial 2018 no FM e p\u00f4s os f\u00e3s a simular. A Fran\u00e7a ganhou, Kane foi o melhor marcador, e um estudante australiano usou isso para apostar.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":19464,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_fmpt_dev_nome":"","_fmpt_dev_site":"","_fmpt_versao":"","_fmpt_ficheiros":[],"_fmpt_changelog":[],"_fmpt_thumbnail_en":19464,"_fmpt_metadesc_en":"","_fmpt_content_en":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2,57],"tags":[22,106,202,230,1092,1108],"class_list":["post-846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-artigos","category-fun","tag-futebol","tag-gaming","tag-inglaterra","tag-simulacao","tag-curiosidades","tag-historias-do-fm"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Usar o FM para apostar? 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